Case 1: Forecasting Transportation Demand

Business vs. Competition Goal

BiCup 2006 Competition: The competition winning criterion was the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) on the future 3-day data.

Business Goal:

We consider a more realistic business context, where the goal is to create a model that generates reasonably good forecasts on any time/day of the week. "Reasonably good" should be considered in operational terms.

Resources

Data (from ForecastingBook.com/datasets)

The file contains the worksheet "Historic Information" with known demand for a 3-week period, separated into 15-minute intervals.

The second worksheet ("Future") contains dates and times for a future 3-day period, for which forecasts should be generated (as part of the BiCup 2006 competition).

Reading

Please read:

Chapter 9, Section 9.1