2.1 Predictive Performance

Topics

  • Predictive performance 
    • Measuring predictive accuracy 
    • Data partitioning and over-fitting 
  • Naïve Forecasts 
  • Types of forecasting methods
  • Using XLMiner

Data & Analysis Files

Slides

Reading

Please read: 
Chapter 3

Assignment: Exploring Demand Data

Chap 2: Prob 5 
Chap 3: Prob 1 (relies on "Forecasting Methods" material)
Chap 9.1: Tips & Suggested Steps 1-4

In this assignment you will create visualizations of time series, characterize the different patterns in the series and consider how to evaluate predictive performance. You will also get experience with Spotfire and XLMiner.